By most standards, the STAR TREK franchise has been a success. It’s spawned many imitators, found an audience among a variety of entertainment platforms, and has enjoyed an enduring appeal with a rabid base of fans.
Yet, the property has had one of the narrowest demographics imaginable: young male science fiction fans. No matter what any incarnation of the show has tried, the franchise has never managed to break through that small but loyal core to a wider audience. And by wider audience, I mean one that includes normal people like women. Or non-virgins.
The movies reflect this disparity. Adjusting for inflation, only two of the previous ten STAR TREK films have grossed above $200 million dollars: STAR TREK THE MOTION PICTURE, and THE VOYAGE HOME. While that figure is nothing to laugh at, one must remember that the first TREK film barely made a profit due to its high cost, which led to the scaled back production of WRATH OF KHAN. The last film in the series, 2002’s awful NEMESIS, earned an anemic $53 million adjusted dollars.
While J.J. Abrams has loaded his reboot with some high-tech special effects and hot young bodies, it’s hard to divine how well this flashy new machine can cross over to the mainstream. Most industry insiders are predicting around $75 million over its first weekend, while Paramount is conservatively predicting around $60 million. This spells a struggle for the film, which needs to cross $200 million to make any kind of profit. The film itself cost $150 million to make, marketing notwithstanding.
Having seen the film in an opening night theater that was less than half full (and only one woman among the group), I am privately wondering how far this film can go. The new film plays slavish homage to the old series (the kiss of death), and revels in the same gibberish that cluttered every other permutation of the show in the past – red matter, phasers, time warps. While I’m sure every STAR TREK geek out there will be beating his tricorder over Abrams’ new film, I seriously doubt that many heterosexual couples will be anxiously picking this movie for date night.
I think the film will open huge. But given TREK’S limited fanbase and the threat of huge summer releases just weeks away, I doubt if TREK will do the box office damage necessary to end up with much left over.
As it stands, I’m still calling the summer this way:
1. TRANSFORMERS
2. HARRY POTTER
3. TERMINATOR
4. ICE AGE
5. UP
6. STAR TREK
7. LAND OF THE LOST
8. ANGELS AND DEMONS
9. G.I. JOE
10. FUNNY PEOPLE
11. BRUNO
12. INGLORIOUS BASTERDS
27 Comments
G.I. Joe will al least be 3 on the list snake eyes come on who would win him or batman
@ andrew roberts – No, G.I. Jope will NOT be three on the list.
Batman could beat Snake Eyes with his growl alone.
Wait, does the general public even know who Snake Eyes is?
The new Star Trek film really moved me. And yes, I’m a semi-Trek geek, or at least a fan. Most of the previews for the summer movies looked embarrassing (GI Joe, Transformers), so this deserves to fare better than you predict. As for your comment that Nemesis was “awful” I just say “eh.” That ’s party line as far as I’m concerned. I really enjoyed it. The only Trek movie that I can’t stand is number 5.
“De-Geek” star Trek?
The fact you even say that means you have too much contempt for the franchise to be talking about it. Nobody ever says Star Wars needed to be “De-Geeked.”
Seems the people who run movie blogs/sites are all die-hard Star Wars fans and Star Trek haters. And you guys hate Star Trek the way David Duke hates black people. sheesh! Just buy yourself a Captain Kirk doll, burn it, stomp on it, spit on it and get it out of your system already.
Jesus Christ.
Personally I don’t see eye to eye on just about any thing Ray writes on this site. However, he is entitled to his opinion and at least he is putting his thoughts on papers for others to agree / disagree with. With that being said, …in this case I agree with him.
As a Star Trek fan, I would welcome some de-geeking. I caught the movie in a 60% full Friday afternoon showing and I would say 30% were girls. Now I am sure they were the girl friends of fellow Star Trek fans like myself but it was nice to see them.
My reason for agreeing for Ray is because, a de-geeking of the fan base will give JJ and his team the money and clout to produce more great stories and hire great actors to portray the villains. In Hollywood it is always about money for movies on this level. Without the casual movie fan or high school teens and their dates showing up Paramount is not going to continue to fund 150 million dollar films. And I would like to see at least five more from this crew over the next 15 years.
Personally, I would give the movie an A-. It is really just any enjoyable fun summer movie and you don’t need to be deep into Star Trek lore to enjoy it. Even being a die hard fan, I wasn’t overly concern about the slight changes to the cannon.
I just hope the movie catches on overseas….
Cheers — John
@ Andrew – Number five was bad as well. As far as predictions go, I just don’t think the general public is going to go for TREK in a big way. I think it will do well … but there are bigger fish in this summer’s frying pan.
@ JaySmack – First of all, do you ever have anything positive to contribute to a forum? The only comments you ever leave anywhere are generally whining diatribes. Do you have anything else to contribute?
As for your “comment,” did you even read the article, or did you simply see the headline and respond in a hissy fit of rage? I have stated my general dislike for TREK based on what has been produced (not the initial Roddenberyy vision, which I do like), and in this article I make a very clear case that TREK has not managed to go beyond a small group of fans in forty years. STAR WARS, on the other hand, has been embraced by the public at large, not just fanboy geeks (although there are many of those out there).
I am not a TREK hater. But I think if you take off your Spock ears and listen to what I’m saying logically, you will agree that the entire franchise has never been produced correctly to the point that it has made a significant impact.
@ John – TREK fans have girlfriends???
@ Ray — Girlfriends…
Shocking we do, and better yet they let us touch them as if they were green skinned Orion Slave Girls. :-)
my picks are this, lets see if i’m right
1. STAR TREK
2. HARRY POTTER
3. ANGELS AND DEMONS
4. TERMINATOR
5. TRANSFORMERS
6. ICE AGE
6. LAND OF THE LOST
7. UP
8 G.I. JOE
9. INGLORIOUS BASTARDS
10. BRUNO
11. FUNNY PEOPLE
Im going to have to agree on Nemesis. Too talky for me, although I did dig the villian. I always liked Khan and the one with the whales out of all the Treks. This new one was great and I hope it makes alot of money and sequels. I could be wrong but nowadays when actors sign contracts for a film, they are also committing to a certain number of sequels within a certain time period as well, whether they are made or not.
@ joe – there is no way that star trek will be number one this summer. I’m pretty sure transformers and potter will easily beat it.
you may be right, let’s see. I was really surprised how good Trek was. I mean, I didnt yawn once!! That in itself says volumes!!!………..joe
Well, as soon as they start trying to go off into more of their own territory – even if (when) they change the costumes from tyhe classic look – it will bomb. The movie is really only capitalizing on vague public familiarity with the series.
People liked this movie because they liked the Original Star Trek series, and this reminded them of it. It doesn’t have a soul of its own. “Normal” people made fun of Trekkies so much, but they are insecure enough to feel left out of even a small group – therefore they feel just golly gee wonderful that this is a Star Trek they “can” like.
Boondock: Your generalizations are overwrought. I like the movie because it’s a good movie. Sorry I don’t fit into your cynical and rather pointless “meow” moment.
This movie was a blast and an engineered crowd pleaser. I think it will have great word of mouth and show some legs especially with the weak looking Angels and Demons due next. By the end I see a $200-250 million take domestically.
I do think the new Terminator will pull in lower than expected numbers.
@ despachio – Should be interesting to see if you’re right. However, I must say that I’m quite surprised to hear from a number of friends that their showings were not sold out or even close.
@Boondock: read my review! I never really watched the original Star Trek stuff and really enjoyed this one.
Just Seen it!!! thought it was great, I can’t believe thay actually pulled it off!
LIVE LONG AND PROSTATE!
It’s been awhile and some movies have opened. how’s my list doing? Is Star Trek winning?
@ joe – So far, STAR TREK has the most box office at around $200 million. TERMINATOR seems to be tanking somewhat, which surprised me. You can be sure, however, that TRANSFORMERS and HARRY POTTER will both beat TREK by the end of the summer.
I think you might be right on Harry Potter, but I don’t get good vibes at all with Transformers 2. We might get a sleeper in there with “UP”. I’m anxious to see. Werent you surprised with Trek though?
I’m guessing:
1. Up
2. Harry
3. Star Trek
4-10 everything else
@ joe – I have been VERY surprised with TREK’s take so far. I thought it would do well – it IS an Abrams production, after all – but I really didn’t think it would hit $200 million.
As far as UP, I’m not sure it’s going to hit as well with the kiddies as some of Pixar’s other fare. Of course, I thought WALL-E was going to be huge with them, and it really wasn’t.
@ Andrew – Do you really think UP will be number one?? I seriously doubt it.
TRANSFORMERS 2 has the biggest buzz of the summer, and the graphics alone will probably secure the number one spot. Warnes made the disastrous decision to push HARRY POTTER back, thereby cutting into anticipation, so I imagine its take will be less than it should have been. I think those two are the ones to beat, however.
Of course, what do I know?? My list completely ignored NIGHT AT THE MUSEUM 2, and that thing is raking in the cash.
I’m extremely surprised by Star Trek and Night at the Museum’s box office takes so far. Then again, their only competition is Terminator (pretty bad), and Angels and Demons (really bad). So I guess its not that far fetched that they are both doing well.
Overall, I still think that Transformers will have the biggest box office take of the summer. The first did extremely well at the box office despite all of us purists out there that try to find every reason for it to fail. The second one looks better effects wise so I don’t see how it wouldn’t do just as good if not better.
I’m a woman and I love star trek, in all it’s incarnations. And there were tons of women where I saw it on opening night-a couple of them laughing too loudly at all the homages to the old series.
I have no idea what the hell you’re talking about.